Optimal Path for Controlling Sectoral CO2 Emissions Among China’s Regions: A Centralized DEA Approach

Abstract: This paper proposes a centralized data envelopment analysis (DEA) model for industrial optimization based on several different production technologies among several regions. We developed this model based on improved Kuosmanen environmental DEA technology, which avoids positive shadow price on undesirable outputs. We also designed a dual model for our centralized DEA model, and used it to analyze shadow prices on CO2 emissions. We further employed the proposed model to determine the optimal path for controlling CO2 emissions at the sector level for each province in China. At sectoral level, manufacturing showed the highest potential emissions reduction, and transportation was the largest accepter of emission quotas. At regional level, western and northeastern areas faced the largest adjustments in allowable emissions, while central and eastern areas required the least amount of adjustment. Because our model represents increase or decrease in emissions bidirectionally in terms of shadow price analysis, this setting makes the shadow price on CO2 emissions lower than strong regulation (decreasing CO2 emissions along with increasing value added) used by directional distance function (DDF).